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2026 Refund Update: How the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is Impacting Returns

As we navigate the opening weeks of the 2026 tax season, the initial data coming out of the IRS has sparked plenty of conversation. The headline news is positive: the average refund has jumped by 14.2%, moving from $2,169 in 2025 to $2,476 this year. While an extra $300 in your pocket is certainly welcome, it is worth noting that this figure trails the $1,000 increase originally projected by policymakers.

However, we are still in the early innings. As more returns are processed, these averages often shift. For our clients here in Gilbert and across Arizona, the current trend suggests that the legislative changes from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) are beginning to take effect, though the full picture is still developing.

Key Provisions Driving Refund Growth

The OBBBA introduced a suite of specific deductions and credits designed to lower tax liability. Understanding which of these applies to your situation is key to effective tax planning.

Child looking at financial documents
  • Overtime Premium Pay Deduction: This provision targets the "half" of "time-and-a-half" pay mandated by the FLSA. Unmarried filers can deduct up to $12,500, while married couples filing jointly are capped at $25,000.

  • The Tips Tax Deduction: Aimed at the service industry, workers in roughly 70 designated occupations can deduct up to $25,000 of qualified tips annually. Married taxpayers must file jointly to utilize this.

    Important Consideration: High earners will see these benefits reduced. Both the overtime and tips deductions begin phasing out at $150,000 MAGI ($300,000 for joint filers) and vanish completely at $275,000 and $550,000, respectively.

  • Auto Loan Interest Deduction: If you purchased a new, U.S.-assembled vehicle for personal use after 2024, you may deduct up to $10,000 in interest. The loan must be secured by the vehicle and cannot be a casual loan from friends or family. Phase-outs start at $100,000 MAGI ($200,000 joint) and end at $150,000 ($250,000 joint).

  • Expanded Standard & Senior Deductions: The standard deduction has seen a significant bump to $31,500 for married joint filers and $15,750 for singles. Additionally, a new "Senior Bonus" offers an extra $6,000 for those aged 65+. Note that the senior bonus has income caps, phasing out completely at $175,000 for singles and $250,000 for couples.

  • Enhanced Child Tax Credit: The credit is now $2,200 per child. Like many benefits, this is income-sensitive, available fully to joint filers earning up to $400,000 and single/head of household filers up to $200,000.

  • SALT Cap Adjustment: A major change for homeowners in higher-tax areas, the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction limit has quadrupled to $40,000 ($20,000 for married filing separately). However, for those with a MAGI over $500,000, this cap begins to decrease back toward previous levels.

Behind the Scenes: Other Factors at Play

Beyond specific legislation, procedural mechanics are also influencing refund sizes. Because many tax cuts were enacted mid-year or retroactively, the IRS did not update withholding tables in real-time. Consequently, many taxpayers had more withheld from their paychecks than necessary, resulting in larger refunds now. Additionally, inflation adjustments to tax brackets are helping to prevent "bracket creep," keeping effective tax rates lower for many families.

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The IRS Operational Landscape

It is no secret that the IRS is facing operational headwinds. Having lost a significant portion of its workforce since January 2025, the agency is tackling a backlog of returns with fewer resources. Early stats show a slight dip in returns processed (down 3.1%). This administrative strain underscores the importance of filing an accurate, error-free return to avoid delays.

We Are Here to Help

If the mix of new phase-outs, retroactive changes, and IRS backlogs feels overwhelming, you are not alone. At Martinez & Shanken PLLC, we specialize in cutting through the noise. We are fully versed in every nuance of the OBBBA and are dedicated to ensuring our clients claim every credit they are entitled to.

Don't leave money on the table or worry about compliance. Contact us today to ensure your 2025 return is optimized for the best possible outcome.

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1560 W Warner Rd Suite 200
Gilbert, Arizona 85233
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